Is the Market Really Like a Casino? – 1926-2015
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Is the Market Really Like a Casino? 1926-2015
Is the stock market like a Vegas casino? Actually, no.
• Notice that the odds of winning any of the most popular games in Vegas never reach 50%; for comparison’s sake, over rolling monthly one-year holding periods the stock market has been up 75.3% of the time.
• Over rolling monthly 15-year periods (i.e., January 1926 to December 1940, February 1926 to January 1941, all the way up to January 2000 to December 2015), stocks are up 99.8% with the only two down periods coming during the Great Depression.
• Ironically, the longer you sit at a table in Vegas the worse your odds get, because as we know “the house always wins.”
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